The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 35-3023.01 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Baristas

Prepare or serve specialty coffee or other beverages. Serve food such as baked goods or sandwiches to patrons.

Reading this score

computed

At 16.1% of weighted task load, Baristas sits at the 26th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 76.3% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 19 tasks it averages 2.47 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Receive and process customer payments, at 80.0%. The least is Slice fruits, vegetables, desserts, or meats for use in food service, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within food preparation and serving occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 18.2% across the group's 16 roles, with 8 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 19 tasks, 4 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 14 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.950-4
Embodiment2.470-3
Presence0.870-3
Accountability0.500-3
Context0.840-3
Verification cost0.610-3

Task by task

19 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Receive and process customer payments.80.0%20.0%0.0%4.80exposed
Create signs to advertise store products or events.80.0%20.0%0.0%2.83exposed
Take customer orders and convey them to other employees for preparation.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.71exposed
Order, receive, or stock supplies or retail products.35.0%15.0%50.0%4.20exposed
Check temperatures of freezers, refrigerators, or heating equipment to ensure proper functioning.23.3%26.7%50.0%4.31assisted
Describe menu items to customers, or suggest products that might appeal to them.13.3%11.7%75.0%4.23untouched
Provide customers with product details, such as coffee blend or preparation descriptions.13.3%11.7%75.0%3.93untouched
Demonstrate the use of retail equipment, such as espresso machines.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.21untouched
Clean or sanitize work areas, utensils, or equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.82untouched
Prepare or serve hot or cold beverages, such as coffee, espresso drinks, blended coffees, or teas.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.79untouched
Clean service or seating areas.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.45untouched
Prepare or serve menu items, such as sandwiches or salads.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.45untouched
Wrap, label, or date food items for sale.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.37untouched
Take out garbage.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.28untouched
Serve prepared foods, such as muffins, biscotti, or bagels.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.09untouched
Stock customer service stations with paper products or beverage preparation items.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.08untouched
Set up or restock product displays.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.91untouched
Weigh, grind, or pack coffee beans for customers.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.83untouched
Slice fruits, vegetables, desserts, or meats for use in food service.0.0%0.0%100.0%2.41untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.