AI exposure: Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters
Cut, shape, and assemble wooden articles or set up and operate a variety of woodworking machines, such as power saws, jointers, and mortisers to surface, cut, or shape lumber or to fabricate parts for wood products.
Reading this score
computedAt 9.6% of weighted task load, Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters sits at the 13th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 85.3% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 20 tasks it averages 2.48 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Estimate the amounts, types, or costs of needed materials, at 64.2%. The least is Apply Masonite, formica, or vinyl surfacing materials, at 0.0%. A gap of 64.2% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within production occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 16.2% across the group's 107 roles, with 82 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.
What would move this score. Of 20 tasks, 5 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 15 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 0.78 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.48 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.15 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.33 | 0-3 |
| Context | 0.90 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 0.80 | 0-3 |
Task by task
20 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate the amounts, types, or costs of needed materials. | 64.2% | 23.3% | 12.5% | 3.74 | exposed |
| Design furniture, using computer-aided drawing programs. | 45.8% | 16.7% | 37.5% | 4.37 | exposed |
| Draw up detailed specifications and discuss projects with customers. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.78 | exposed |
| Establish the specifications of articles to be constructed or repaired, or plan the methods or operations for shaping or assembling parts, based on blueprints, drawings, diagrams, or oral or written instructions. | 41.7% | 20.8% | 37.5% | 4.22 | exposed |
| Program computers to operate machinery. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.36 | exposed |
| Match materials for color, grain, or texture, giving attention to knots or other features of the wood. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.32 | untouched |
| Set up or operate machines, including power saws, jointers, mortisers, tenoners, molders, or shapers, to cut, mold, or shape woodstock or wood substitutes. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.28 | untouched |
| Verify dimensions or check the quality or fit of pieces to ensure adherence to specifications. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.39 | untouched |
| Produce or assemble components of articles, such as store fixtures, office equipment, cabinets, or high-grade furniture. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.36 | untouched |
| Trim, sand, or scrape surfaces or joints to prepare articles for finishing. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.33 | untouched |
| Measure and mark dimensions of parts on paper or lumber stock prior to cutting, following blueprints, to ensure a tight fit and quality product. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.32 | untouched |
| Cut timber to the right size, and shape and trim parts of joints to ensure a snug fit, using hand tools, such as planes, chisels, or wood files. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.32 | untouched |
| Bore holes for insertion of screws or dowels, by hand or using boring machines. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.19 | untouched |
| Attach parts or subassemblies together to form completed units, using glue, dowels, nails, screws, or clamps. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.18 | untouched |
| Reinforce joints with nails or other fasteners to prepare articles for finishing. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.17 | untouched |
| Install hardware, such as hinges, handles, catches, or drawer pulls, using hand tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.17 | untouched |
| Perform final touch-ups with sandpaper or steel wool. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.07 | untouched |
| Repair or alter wooden furniture, cabinetry, fixtures, paneling, or other pieces. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.88 | untouched |
| Dip, brush, or spray assembled articles with protective or decorative finishes, such as stain, varnish, paint, or lacquer. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.93 | untouched |
| Apply Masonite, formica, or vinyl surfacing materials. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.30 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.