The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 39-9011.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Childcare Workers

Attend to children at schools, businesses, private households, and childcare institutions. Perform a variety of tasks, such as dressing, feeding, bathing, and overseeing play.

Reading this score

computed

At 16.2% of weighted task load, Childcare Workers sits at the 26th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 69.9% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 24 tasks it averages 1.95 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Keep records on individual children, at 73.3%. The least is Accompany children to and from school, on outings, and to medical appointments, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within personal care and service occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 24.4% across the group's 31 roles, with 26 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 24 tasks, 6 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 17 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.170-4
Embodiment1.950-3
Presence1.850-3
Accountability1.120-3
Context1.690-3
Verification cost1.350-3

Task by task

24 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Keep records on individual children, including daily observations and information about activities, meals served, and medications administered.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.27exposed
Create developmentally appropriate lesson plans.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.08exposed
Perform general administrative tasks, such as taking attendance, editing internal paperwork, and making phone calls.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.17exposed
Regulate children's rest periods.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.82exposed
Perform general personnel functions, such as supervision, training, and scheduling.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.83exposed
Instruct children in health and personal habits, such as eating, resting, and toilet habits.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.19exposed
Organize and participate in recreational activities and outings, such as games and field trips.23.3%26.7%50.0%3.80assisted
Observe and monitor children's play activities.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.46untouched
Read to children and teach them simple painting, drawing, handicrafts, and songs.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.04untouched
Discipline children and recommend or initiate other measures to control behavior, such as caring for own clothing and picking up toys and books.8.3%16.7%75.0%3.95untouched
Help children with homework and school work.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.17untouched
Maintain a safe play environment.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.67untouched
Communicate with children's parents or guardians about daily activities, behaviors, and related issues.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.40untouched
Support children's emotional and social development, encouraging understanding of others and positive self-concepts.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.35untouched
Identify signs of emotional or developmental problems in children and bring them to parents' or guardians' attention.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.23untouched
Care for children in institutional setting, such as group homes, nursery schools, private businesses, or schools for people with disabilities.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.34untouched
Sanitize toys and play equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.32untouched
Dress children and change diapers.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.31untouched
Organize and store toys and materials to ensure order in activity areas.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.18untouched
Perform housekeeping duties, such as laundry, cleaning, dish washing, and changing of linens.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.06untouched
Assist in preparing food and serving meals and refreshments to children.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.02untouched
Sterilize bottles and prepare formulas.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.18untouched
Provide care for children with physical, developmental, or mental health disabilities.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.16untouched
Accompany children to and from school, on outings, and to medical appointments.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.45untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.