AI exposure: First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of workers engaged in firefighting and fire prevention and control.
Reading this score
computedAt 20.6% of weighted task load, First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers sits at the 37th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 55.6% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is verification cost. Across this occupation's 30 tasks it averages 2.19 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, checking the output costs more than producing it. Where an undetected error is expensive, dangerous or irreversible, the economics change. Someone has to verify the work, and verifying can cost as much as doing it. This is the friction most likely to fall as tools for checking improve.
The most exposed thing this job does is Schedule employee work assignments and set work priorities, at 80.0%. The least is Perform maintenance and minor repairs on firefighting equipment, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within protective service occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 26 roles in the group is 18.3%, and only 9 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 30 tasks, 6 are currently banded exposed, 9 assisted and 15 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.81 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 1.76 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 1.68 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.54 | 0-3 |
| Context | 2.16 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 2.19 | 0-3 |
Task by task
30 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schedule employee work assignments and set work priorities. | 80.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 3.59 | exposed |
| Perform administrative duties, such as compiling and maintaining records, completing forms, preparing reports, or composing correspondence. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.98 | exposed |
| Maintain required maps and records. | 73.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.66 | exposed |
| Study and interpret fire safety codes to establish procedures for issuing permits to handle hazardous or flammable substances. | 40.0% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 3.34 | exposed |
| Recommend equipment modifications or new equipment purchases. | 35.0% | 40.0% | 25.0% | 3.66 | assisted |
| Participate in creating fire safety guidelines and evacuation schemes for nonresidential buildings. | 35.0% | 40.0% | 25.0% | 3.33 | assisted |
| Communicate fire details to superiors, subordinates, or interagency dispatch centers, using two-way radios. | 30.0% | 45.0% | 25.0% | 4.40 | assisted |
| Direct the training of firefighters, assigning of instructors to training classes, and providing of supervisors with reports on training progress and status. | 30.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 4.11 | exposed |
| Recruit or hire firefighting personnel. | 27.1% | 35.4% | 37.5% | 4.28 | assisted |
| Direct investigation of cases of suspected arson, hazards, and false alarms and submit reports outlining findings. | 27.1% | 35.4% | 37.5% | 3.66 | assisted |
| Instruct and drill fire department personnel in assigned duties, including firefighting, medical care, hazardous materials response, fire prevention, and related subjects. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.29 | exposed |
| Evaluate the performance of assigned firefighting personnel. | 25.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 4.09 | assisted |
| Plan, direct, and supervise prescribed burn projects. | 18.3% | 31.7% | 50.0% | 3.71 | assisted |
| Evaluate fire station procedures to ensure efficiency and enforcement of departmental regulations. | 16.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 3.84 | assisted |
| Analyze burn conditions and results, and prepare postburn reports. | 15.6% | 29.4% | 55.0% | 4.05 | untouched |
| Assign firefighters to jobs at strategic locations to facilitate rescue of persons and maximize application of extinguishing agents. | 13.3% | 36.7% | 50.0% | 4.47 | assisted |
| Maintain knowledge of fire laws and fire prevention techniques and tactics. | 13.3% | 11.7% | 75.0% | 3.79 | untouched |
| Inspect and test new and existing fire protection systems, fire detection systems, and fire safety equipment to ensure that they are operating properly. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 3.78 | untouched |
| Inspect stations, uniforms, equipment, or recreation areas to ensure compliance with safety standards, taking corrective action as necessary. | 8.3% | 16.7% | 75.0% | 3.78 | untouched |
| Drive crew carriers to transport firefighters to fire sites. | 8.3% | 16.7% | 75.0% | 4.20 | untouched |
| Maintain fire suppression equipment in good condition, checking equipment periodically to ensure that it is ready for use. | 5.4% | 7.1% | 87.5% | 4.52 | untouched |
| Evaluate size, location, and condition of fires. | 3.3% | 21.7% | 75.0% | 4.30 | untouched |
| Assess nature and extent of fire, condition of building, danger to adjacent buildings, and water supply status to determine crew or company requirements. | 3.3% | 21.7% | 75.0% | 4.24 | untouched |
| Direct firefighters in station maintenance duties, and participate in these duties. | 3.3% | 9.2% | 87.5% | 3.91 | untouched |
| Supervise and participate in the inspection of properties to ensure that they are in compliance with applicable fire codes, ordinances, laws, regulations, and standards. | 2.5% | 22.5% | 75.0% | 3.80 | untouched |
| Monitor fire suppression expenditures to ensure that they are necessary and reasonable. | 1.7% | 23.3% | 75.0% | 4.23 | untouched |
| Recommend personnel actions related to disciplinary procedures, performance, leaves of absence, and grievances. | 1.7% | 23.3% | 75.0% | 3.93 | untouched |
| Serve as a working leader of an engine, hand, helicopter, or prescribed fire crew of three or more firefighters. | 1.2% | 11.2% | 87.5% | 4.39 | untouched |
| Provide emergency medical services as required, and perform light to heavy rescue functions at emergencies. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.59 | untouched |
| Perform maintenance and minor repairs on firefighting equipment, including vehicles, and write and submit proposals to modify, replace, and repair equipment. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.10 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.