AI exposure: Forest and Conservation Workers
Under supervision, perform manual labor necessary to develop, maintain, or protect areas such as forests, forested areas, woodlands, wetlands, and rangelands through such activities as raising and transporting seedlings; combating insects, pests, and diseases harmful to plant life; and building structures to control water, erosion, and leaching of soil. Includes forester aides, seedling pullers, tree planters, and gatherers of nontimber forestry products such as pine straw.
Reading this score
computedAt 10.8% of weighted task load, Forest and Conservation Workers sits at the 15th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 80.6% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 17 tasks it averages 2.65 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Maintain tallies of trees examined and counted during tree marking or measuring efforts, at 50.0%. The least is Sort tree seedlings, discarding substandard seedlings, according to standard charts or verbal..., at 0.0%. A gap of 50.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within farming, fishing and forestry occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 12 roles in the group is 9.0%, and only 5 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 17 tasks, 3 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 14 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 0.65 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.65 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.76 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.65 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.44 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.32 | 0-3 |
Task by task
17 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain tallies of trees examined and counted during tree marking or measuring efforts. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.47 | exposed |
| Explain or enforce regulations regarding camping, vehicle use, fires, use of buildings, or sanitation. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.36 | exposed |
| Confer with other workers to discuss issues, such as safety, cutting heights, or work needs. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.46 | exposed |
| Select or cut trees according to markings or sizes, types, or grades. | 18.8% | 18.8% | 62.5% | 3.28 | untouched |
| Check equipment to ensure that it is operating properly. | 10.0% | 15.0% | 75.0% | 4.40 | untouched |
| Identify diseased or undesirable trees and remove them, using power saws or hand saws. | 6.2% | 6.2% | 87.5% | 3.29 | untouched |
| Fight forest fires or perform prescribed burning tasks under the direction of fire suppression officers or forestry technicians. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.37 | untouched |
| Perform fire protection or suppression duties, such as constructing fire breaks or disposing of brush. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.21 | untouched |
| Operate skidders, bulldozers, or other prime movers to pull a variety of scarification or site preparation equipment over areas to be regenerated. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.33 | untouched |
| Spray or inject vegetation with insecticides to kill insects or to protect against disease or with herbicides to reduce competing vegetation. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.33 | untouched |
| Thin or space trees, using power thinning saws. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.30 | untouched |
| Prune or shear tree tops or limbs to control growth, increase density, or improve shape. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.02 | untouched |
| Maintain campsites or recreational areas, replenishing firewood or other supplies and cleaning kitchens or restrooms. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.98 | untouched |
| Erect signs or fences, using posthole diggers, shovels, or other hand tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.90 | untouched |
| Select tree seedlings, prepare the ground, or plant the trees in reforestation areas, using manual planting tools. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.88 | untouched |
| Provide assistance to forest survey crews by clearing site-lines, holding measuring tools, or setting stakes. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.68 | untouched |
| Sort tree seedlings, discarding substandard seedlings, according to standard charts or verbal instructions. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.15 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.