AI exposure: Foresters
Manage public and private forested lands for economic, recreational, and conservation purposes. May inventory the type, amount, and location of standing timber, appraise the timber's worth, negotiate the purchase, and draw up contracts for procurement. May determine how to conserve wildlife habitats, creek beds, water quality, and soil stability, and how best to comply with environmental regulations. May devise plans for planting and growing new trees, monitor trees for healthy growth, and determine optimal harvesting schedules.
Reading this score
computed27.2% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Foresters at the 50th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.1 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.
What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 25 tasks it averages 1.96 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.
The most exposed thing this job does is Conduct public educational programs on forest care and conservation, at 55.0%. The least is Choose and prepare sites for new trees, at 0.0%. A gap of 55.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within life, physical and social science occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 36.3% across the group's 60 roles, with 45 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.
What would move this score. Of 25 tasks, 10 are currently banded exposed, 12 assisted and 3 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take cheaper ways to verify output, since the cost of checking is currently doing more to hold this work in place than the cost of producing it. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Task by task
25 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conduct public educational programs on forest care and conservation. | 55.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 3.50 | exposed |
| Procure timber from private landowners. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.49 | exposed |
| Determine methods of cutting and removing timber with minimum waste and environmental damage. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.24 | exposed |
| Provide advice and recommendations, as a consultant on forestry issues, to private woodlot owners, firefighters, government agencies or to companies. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 4.05 | exposed |
| Analyze effect of forest conditions on tree growth rates and tree species prevalence and the yield, duration, seed production, growth viability, and germination of different species. | 45.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 3.50 | exposed |
| Monitor contract compliance and results of forestry activities to assure adherence to government regulations. | 35.0% | 40.0% | 25.0% | 4.09 | assisted |
| Plan and direct forest surveys and related studies and prepare reports and recommendations. | 33.3% | 29.2% | 37.5% | 3.95 | exposed |
| Establish short- and long-term plans for management of forest lands and forest resources. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.38 | exposed |
| Plan cutting programs and manage timber sales from harvested areas, assisting companies to achieve production goals. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 4.28 | exposed |
| Plan and implement projects for conservation of wildlife habitats and soil and water quality. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.82 | exposed |
| Contact local forest owners and gain permission to take inventory of the type, amount, and location of all standing timber on the property. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.28 | exposed |
| Plan and supervise forestry projects, such as determining the type, number and placement of trees to be planted, managing tree nurseries, thinning forest and monitoring growth of new seedlings. | 25.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 4.02 | assisted |
| Supervise activities of other forestry workers. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 4.07 | assisted |
| Develop techniques for measuring and identifying trees. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 4.05 | assisted |
| Direct, and participate in, forest fire suppression. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 3.79 | assisted |
| Study different tree species' classification, life history, light and soil requirements, adaptation to new environmental conditions and resistance to disease and insects. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 3.67 | assisted |
| Plan and direct construction and maintenance of recreation facilities, fire towers, trails, roads and bridges, ensuring that they comply with guidelines and regulations set for forested public lands. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 3.33 | assisted |
| Develop new techniques for wood or residue use. | 23.3% | 26.7% | 50.0% | 2.88 | assisted |
| Negotiate terms and conditions of agreements and contracts for forest harvesting, forest management and leasing of forest lands. | 21.7% | 28.3% | 50.0% | 4.17 | assisted |
| Subcontract with loggers or pulpwood cutters for tree removal and to aid in road layout. | 21.7% | 28.3% | 50.0% | 3.65 | assisted |
| Monitor forest-cleared lands to ensure that they are reclaimed to their most suitable end use. | 20.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 3.82 | assisted |
| Monitor wildlife populations and assess the impacts of forest operations on population and habitats. | 20.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 3.10 | assisted |
| Map forest area soils and vegetation to estimate the amount of standing timber and future value and growth. | 13.3% | 11.7% | 75.0% | 4.02 | untouched |
| Perform inspections of forests or forest nurseries. | 8.3% | 16.7% | 75.0% | 4.17 | untouched |
| Choose and prepare sites for new trees, using controlled burning, bulldozers, or herbicides to clear weeds, brush, and logging debris. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.88 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 2.10 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 1.20 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.96 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 1.38 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.96 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.80 | 0-3 |
What this means in practice
Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.