The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 49-9044.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Millwrights

Install, dismantle, or move machinery and heavy equipment according to layout plans, blueprints, or other drawings.

Reading this score

computed

Millwrights is among the least exposed occupations measured, at 4.7% of weighted task load, rank 879 of 923. 92.0% of this job is work current AI systems cannot produce at all. That is not a statement about skill or value. It is a statement about what these systems can and cannot do.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 23 tasks it averages 2.89 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Install robot and modify its program, at 33.3%. The least is Operate engine lathe to grind, file, and turn machine parts to dimensional specifications, at 0.0%. A gap of 33.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within installation, maintenance and repair occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 13.8% across the group's 50 roles, with 45 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 23 tasks, 1 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 21 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.350-4
Embodiment2.890-3
Presence0.150-3
Accountability0.520-3
Context0.980-3
Verification cost1.180-3

Task by task

23 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Install robot and modify its program, using teach pendant.33.3%16.7%50.0%3.77exposed
Troubleshoot equipment, electrical components, hydraulics, or other mechanical systems.23.3%26.7%50.0%4.00assisted
Shrink-fit bushings, sleeves, rings, liners, gears, and wheels to specified items, using portable gas heating equipment.16.7%8.3%75.0%4.05untouched
Signal crane operator to lower basic assembly units to bedplate, and align unit to centerline.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.64untouched
Connect power unit to machines or steam piping to equipment, and test unit to evaluate its mechanical operation.15.0%10.0%75.0%3.89untouched
Lay out mounting holes, using measuring instruments, and drill holes with power drill.8.8%3.8%87.5%4.10untouched
Replace defective parts of machine, or adjust clearances and alignment of moving parts.7.5%5.0%87.5%4.81untouched
Align machines or equipment, using hoists, jacks, hand tools, squares, rules, micrometers, lasers, or plumb bobs.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.73untouched
Insert shims, adjust tension on nuts and bolts, or position parts, using hand tools and measuring instruments, to set specified clearances between moving and stationary parts.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.68untouched
Conduct preventative maintenance and repair, and lubricate machines and equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.59untouched
Assemble and install equipment, using hand tools and power tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.55untouched
Assemble machines, and bolt, weld, rivet, or otherwise fasten them to foundation or other structures, using hand tools and power tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.45untouched
Move machinery and equipment, using hoists, dollies, rollers, and trucks.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.41untouched
Level bedplate and establish centerline, using straightedge, levels, and transit.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.32untouched
Dismantle machines, using hammers, wrenches, crowbars, and other hand tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.29untouched
Bolt parts, such as side and deck plates, jaw plates, and journals, to basic assembly unit.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.14untouched
Attach moving parts and subassemblies to basic assembly unit, using hand tools and power tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.09untouched
Weld, repair, and fabricate equipment or machinery.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.05untouched
Dismantle machinery and equipment for shipment to installation site, performing installation and maintenance work as part of team.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.90untouched
Position steel beams to support bedplates of machines and equipment, using blueprints and schematic drawings to determine work procedures.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.86untouched
Fabricate and dismantle parts, equipment, and machines, using a cutting torch or other cutting equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.77untouched
Construct foundation for machines, using hand tools and building materials such as wood, cement, and steel.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.58untouched
Operate engine lathe to grind, file, and turn machine parts to dimensional specifications.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.53untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.