The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 47-2181.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Roofers

Cover roofs of structures with shingles, slate, asphalt, aluminum, wood, or related materials. May spray roofs, sidings, and walls with material to bind, seal, insulate, or soundproof sections of structures.

Reading this score

computed

Roofers is among the least exposed occupations measured, at 1.7% of weighted task load, rank 905 of 923. 97.1% of this job is work current AI systems cannot produce at all. That is not a statement about skill or value. It is a statement about what these systems can and cannot do.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 25 tasks it averages 2.88 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Estimate materials and labor required to complete roofing jobs, at 52.5%. The least is Attach solar panels to existing roofs, according to specifications and without damaging roofing..., at 0.0%. A gap of 52.5% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within construction and extraction occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 5.1% across the group's 61 roles, with 48 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 25 tasks, 1 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 24 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability0.160-4
Embodiment2.880-3
Presence0.040-3
Accountability0.620-3
Context0.920-3
Verification cost1.240-3

Task by task

25 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Estimate materials and labor required to complete roofing jobs.52.5%22.5%25.0%4.64exposed
Inspect problem roofs to determine the best repair procedures.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.58untouched
Waterproof or damp-proof walls, floors, roofs, foundations, or basements by painting or spraying surfaces with waterproof coatings or by attaching waterproofing membranes to surfaces.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.42untouched
Cover exposed nailheads with roofing cement or caulking to prevent water leakage or rust.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.34untouched
Apply reflective roof coatings, such as special paints or single-ply roofing sheets, to existing roofs to reduce solar heat absorption.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.34untouched
Remove snow, water, or debris from roofs prior to applying roofing materials.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.32untouched
Cut felt, shingles, or strips of flashing to fit angles formed by walls, vents, or intersecting roof surfaces.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.31untouched
Install vapor barriers or layers of insulation on flat roofs.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.28untouched
Cover roofs or exterior walls of structures with slate, asphalt, aluminum, wood, gravel, gypsum, or related materials, using brushes, knives, punches, hammers, or other tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.27untouched
Install, repair, or replace single-ply roofing systems, using waterproof sheet materials such as modified plastics, elastomeric, or other asphaltic compositions.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.22untouched
Attach roofing paper to roofs in overlapping strips to form bases for other materials.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.21untouched
Set up scaffolding to provide safe access to roofs.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.15untouched
Cement or nail flashing strips of metal or shingle over joints to make them watertight.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.11untouched
Apply plastic coatings, membranes, fiberglass, or felt over sloped roofs before applying shingles.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.00untouched
Install partially overlapping layers of material over roof insulation surfaces, using chalk lines, gauges on shingling hatchets, or lines on shingles.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.97untouched
Install attic ventilation systems, such as turbine vents, gable or ridge vents, or conventional or solar-powered exhaust fans.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.96untouched
Punch holes in slate, tile, terra cotta, or wooden shingles, using punches and hammers.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.94untouched
Glaze top layers to make a smooth finish or embed gravel in the bitumen for rough surfaces.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.92untouched
Smooth rough spots to prepare surfaces for waterproofing, using hammers, chisels, or rubbing bricks.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.76untouched
Apply gravel or pebbles over top layers of roofs, using rakes or stiff-bristled brooms.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.61untouched
Install skylights on roofs to increase natural light inside structures or to reduce energy costs.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.47untouched
Mop or pour hot asphalt or tar onto roof bases.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.80untouched
Apply alternate layers of hot asphalt or tar and roofing paper to roofs.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.69untouched
Spray roofs, sidings, or walls to bind, seal, insulate, or soundproof sections of structures, using spray guns, air compressors, or heaters.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.53untouched
Attach solar panels to existing roofs, according to specifications and without damaging roofing materials or the structural integrity of buildings.0.0%0.0%100.0%2.15untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.