The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 17-2051.01 · Job Zone 4

AI exposure: Transportation Engineers

Develop plans for surface transportation projects, according to established engineering standards and state or federal construction policy. Prepare designs, specifications, or estimates for transportation facilities. Plan modifications of existing streets, highways, or freeways to improve traffic flow.

Reading this score

computed

38.9% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Transportation Engineers at the 69th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.6 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 26 tasks it averages 1.96 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Prepare administrative, technical, or statistical reports on traffic-operation matters, at 73.3%. The least is Inspect completed transportation projects to ensure compliance with environmental regulations, at 8.3%. A gap of 65.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within architecture and engineering occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 56 roles in the group is 37.5%, and only 18 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 26 tasks, 16 are currently banded exposed, 6 assisted and 4 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take a change in who is permitted to sign the work, which is a question for regulators rather than for engineers. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

26 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Prepare administrative, technical, or statistical reports on traffic-operation matters, such as accidents, safety measures, or pedestrian volume or practices.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.10exposed
Plan alteration or modification of existing transportation structures to improve safety or function.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.09exposed
Develop plans to deconstruct damaged or obsolete roadways or other transportation structures in a manner that is environmentally sound or prepares the land for sustainable development.73.3%26.7%0.0%2.85exposed
Prepare project budgets, schedules, or specifications for labor or materials.61.1%22.2%16.7%3.71exposed
Estimate transportation project costs.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.91exposed
Evaluate traffic control devices or lighting systems to determine need for modification or expansion.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.75exposed
Evaluate transportation systems or traffic control devices or lighting systems to determine need for modification or expansion.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.65exposed
Develop or assist in the development of transportation-related computer software or computer processes.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.00exposed
Check construction plans, design calculations, or cost estimations to ensure completeness, accuracy, or conformity to engineering standards or practices.45.0%30.0%25.0%4.23exposed
Review development plans to determine potential traffic impact.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.68exposed
Model transportation scenarios to evaluate the impacts of activities such as new development or to identify possible solutions to transportation problems.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.45exposed
Evaluate construction project materials for compliance with environmental standards.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.26exposed
Present data, maps, or other information at construction-related public hearings or meetings.40.0%35.0%25.0%4.00exposed
Investigate traffic problems and recommend methods to improve traffic flow or safety.40.0%35.0%25.0%3.91exposed
Design transportation systems or structures with sustainable materials or products, such as porous pavement or bioretention structures.40.0%35.0%25.0%3.09exposed
Confer with contractors, utility companies, or government agencies to discuss plans, specifications, or work schedules.35.0%40.0%25.0%4.00assisted
Design or engineer drainage, erosion, or sedimentation control systems for transportation projects.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.79exposed
Prepare final project layout drawings that include details such as stress calculations.23.3%26.7%50.0%3.94assisted
Participate in contract bidding, negotiation, or administration.23.3%26.7%50.0%3.38assisted
Design or prepare plans for new transportation systems or parts of systems, such as airports, commuter trains, highways, streets, bridges, drainage structures, or roadway lighting.20.0%30.0%50.0%4.55assisted
Analyze environmental impact statements for transportation projects.20.0%30.0%50.0%3.55assisted
Direct the surveying, staking, or laying-out of construction projects.16.7%33.3%50.0%3.19assisted
Supervise the maintenance or repair of transportation systems or system components.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.50untouched
Investigate or test specific construction project materials to determine compliance to specifications or standards.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.50untouched
Inspect completed transportation projects to ensure safety or compliance with applicable standards or regulations.8.3%16.7%75.0%3.70untouched
Inspect completed transportation projects to ensure compliance with environmental regulations.8.3%16.7%75.0%3.41untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability2.590-4
Embodiment0.850-3
Presence0.580-3
Accountability1.640-3
Context1.960-3
Verification cost1.820-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.