The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 45-2092.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse

Manually plant, cultivate, and harvest vegetables, fruits, nuts, horticultural specialties, and field crops. Use hand tools, such as shovels, trowels, hoes, tampers, pruning hooks, shears, and knives. Duties may include tilling soil and applying fertilizers; transplanting, weeding, thinning, or pruning crops; applying pesticides; or cleaning, grading, sorting, packing, and loading harvested products. May construct trellises, repair fences and farm buildings, or participate in irrigation activities.

Reading this score

computed

At 17.5% of weighted task load, Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse sits at the 29th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 72.5% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 27 tasks it averages 2.37 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Record information about crops, at 73.3%. The least is Plant, spray, weed, fertilize, water, and prune plants, shrubs, and trees, at 0.0%. A gap of 73.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within farming, fishing and forestry occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 12 roles in the group is 9.0%, and only 2 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 27 tasks, 7 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 20 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.060-4
Embodiment2.370-3
Presence0.440-3
Accountability0.460-3
Context1.200-3
Verification cost0.980-3

Task by task

27 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Record information about crops, such as pesticide use, yields, or costs.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.12exposed
Record information about plants and plant growth.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.43exposed
Set up and operate irrigation equipment.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.71exposed
Regulate greenhouse conditions, and indoor and outdoor irrigation systems.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.01exposed
Provide information and advice to the public regarding the selection, purchase, and care of products.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.79exposed
Inform farmers or farm managers of crop progress.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.69exposed
Maintain inventory, ordering materials as required.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.43exposed
Maintain and repair irrigation and climate control systems.26.2%11.2%62.5%3.70untouched
Sell and deliver plants and flowers to customers.14.2%10.8%75.0%4.17untouched
Operate tractors, tractor-drawn machinery, and self-propelled machinery to plow, harrow and fertilize soil, or to plant, cultivate, spray and harvest crops.13.3%11.7%75.0%3.45untouched
Feel plants' leaves and note their coloring to detect the presence of insects or disease.11.7%13.3%75.0%3.83untouched
Inspect plants and bud ties to assess quality.11.7%13.3%75.0%3.27untouched
Direct and monitor the work of casual and seasonal help during planting and harvesting.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.09untouched
Identify plants, pests, and weeds to determine the selection and application of pesticides and fertilizers.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.54untouched
Participate in the inspection, grading, sorting, storage, and post-harvest treatment of crops.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.03untouched
Harvest plants, and transplant or pot and label them.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.03untouched
Repair and maintain farm vehicles, implements, and mechanical equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.81untouched
Harvest fruits and vegetables by hand.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.78untouched
Load agricultural products into trucks, and drive trucks to market or storage facilities.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.29untouched
Clean work areas, and maintain grounds and landscaping.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.10untouched
Dig, cut, and transplant seedlings, cuttings, trees, and shrubs.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.69untouched
Dig, rake, and screen soil, filling cold frames and hot beds in preparation for planting.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.37untouched
Move containerized shrubs, plants, and trees, using wheelbarrows or tractors.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.23untouched
Tie and bunch flowers, plants, shrubs, and trees, wrap their roots, and pack them into boxes to fill orders.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.20untouched
Haul and spread topsoil, fertilizer, peat moss, and other materials to condition soil, using wheelbarrows or carts and shovels.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.10untouched
Repair farm buildings, fences, and other structures.0.0%0.0%100.0%2.94untouched
Plant, spray, weed, fertilize, water, and prune plants, shrubs, and trees, using gardening tools.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean. 1 task(s) lacked a usable O*NET weight and are shown but excluded from the weighting.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.