The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 45-1011.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers

Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of agricultural, forestry, aquacultural, and related workers.

Reading this score

computed

At 23.0% of weighted task load, First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers sits at the 43th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 58.9% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 30 tasks it averages 1.83 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Assign tasks such as feeding and treatment of animals, and cleaning and maintenance of animal..., at 66.7%. The least is Transport or arrange for transport of animals, equipment, food, animal feed, and other supplies..., at 0.0%. A gap of 66.7% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within farming, fishing and forestry occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 12 roles in the group is 9.0%, and only 0 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 30 tasks, 14 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 15 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.700-4
Embodiment1.830-3
Presence1.400-3
Accountability1.080-3
Context1.780-3
Verification cost1.420-3

Task by task

30 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Assign tasks such as feeding and treatment of animals, and cleaning and maintenance of animal quarters.66.7%33.3%0.0%4.48exposed
Prepare and maintain time or payroll reports, as well as details of personnel actions, such as performance evaluations, hires, promotions, or disciplinary actions.66.7%33.3%0.0%3.54exposed
Schedule work crews, equipment, or transportation for several different work locations.60.0%15.0%25.0%3.92exposed
Plan work schedules according to personnel and equipment availability.60.0%15.0%25.0%exposed
Record the numbers and types of fish or shellfish reared, harvested, released, sold, and shipped.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.46exposed
Calculate or monitor budgets for maintenance or development of collections, grounds, or infrastructure.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.27exposed
Confer with managers to evaluate weather or soil conditions, to develop plans or procedures, or to discuss issues such as changes in fertilizers, herbicides, or cultivating techniques.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.05exposed
Read inventory records, customer orders, or shipping schedules to determine required activities.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.63exposed
Confer with managers to determine production requirements, conditions of equipment and supplies, and work schedules.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.58exposed
Requisition or purchase supplies, such as insecticides, machine parts or lubricants, or tools.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.52exposed
Issue equipment, such as farm implements, machinery, ladders, or containers to workers, and collect equipment when work is complete.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.36exposed
Communicate with forestry personnel regarding forest harvesting or forest management plans, procedures, or schedules.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.04exposed
Coordinate dismantling, moving, and setting up equipment at new work sites.26.7%23.3%50.0%4.00exposed
Coordinate the selection and movement of logs from storage areas, according to transportation schedules or production requirements.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.98exposed
Monitor operations to identify and solve problems, improve work methods, and ensure compliance with safety, company, and government regulations.16.7%33.3%50.0%assisted
Direct or assist with the adjustment or repair of equipment or machinery.14.2%10.8%75.0%untouched
Drive or operate farm machinery, such as trucks, tractors, or self-propelled harvesters, to transport workers or supplies or to cultivate or harvest fields.13.3%11.7%75.0%3.88untouched
Inspect crops, fields, or plant stock to determine conditions and need for cultivating, spraying, weeding, or harvesting.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.03untouched
Perform both supervisory and management functions, such as accounting, marketing, and personnel work.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.83untouched
Inspect buildings, fences, fields or ranges, supplies, and equipment to determine work to be performed.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.72untouched
Inspect facilities to determine maintenance needs.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.59untouched
Monitor or oversee construction projects, such as horticultural buildings or irrigation systems.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.40untouched
Monitor workers to ensure that safety regulations are followed, warning or disciplining those who violate safety regulations.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.45untouched
Observe animals for signs of illness, injury, or unusual behavior, notifying veterinarians or managers as warranted.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.38untouched
Observe fish and beds or ponds to detect diseases, monitor fish growth, determine quality of fish, or determine completeness of harvesting.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.29untouched
Train workers in tree felling or bucking, operation of tractors or loading machines, yarding or loading techniques, or safety regulations.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.27untouched
Train workers in spawning, rearing, cultivating, and harvesting methods, and in the use of equipment.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.21untouched
Train workers in techniques such as planting, harvesting, weeding, or insect identification and in the use of safety measures.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.07untouched
Treat animal illnesses or injuries, following experience or instructions of veterinarians.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.24untouched
Transport or arrange for transport of animals, equipment, food, animal feed, and other supplies to and from work sites.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.76untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean. 3 task(s) lacked a usable O*NET weight and are shown but excluded from the weighting.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.