The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 41-1012.00 · Job Zone 4

AI exposure: First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers

Directly supervise and coordinate activities of sales workers other than retail sales workers. May perform duties such as budgeting, accounting, and personnel work, in addition to supervisory duties.

Reading this score

computed

53.2% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers at the 91th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 3.0 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 18 tasks it averages 1.89 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Analyze details of sales territories to assess their growth potential and to set quotas, at 86.7%. The least is Examine merchandise to ensure correct pricing and display, and that it functions as advertised, at 10.0%. A gap of 76.7% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within sales occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 22 roles in the group is 49.4%, and only 7 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 18 tasks, 16 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 2 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take systems being given deeper access to the organisation's own records and history, which is already happening. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

18 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Analyze details of sales territories to assess their growth potential and to set quotas.86.7%13.3%0.0%3.81exposed
Listen to and resolve customer complaints regarding services, products, or personnel.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.88exposed
Keep records pertaining to purchases, sales, and requisitions.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.87exposed
Provide staff with assistance in performing difficult or complicated duties.70.0%17.5%12.5%4.06exposed
Visit retailers and sales representatives to promote products and gather information.67.1%20.4%12.5%4.06exposed
Plan and prepare work schedules, and assign employees to specific duties.66.7%33.3%0.0%3.75exposed
Prepare sales and inventory reports for management and budget departments.60.0%40.0%0.0%4.02exposed
Confer with company officials to develop methods and procedures to increase sales, expand markets, and promote business.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.79exposed
Inventory stock and reorder when inventories drop to specified levels.52.5%22.5%25.0%3.79exposed
Coordinate sales promotion activities, such as preparing merchandise displays and advertising copy.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.75exposed
Attend company meetings to exchange product information and coordinate work activities with other departments.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.63exposed
Formulate pricing policies on merchandise according to profitability requirements.45.0%30.0%25.0%4.06exposed
Prepare rental or lease agreements, specifying charges and payment procedures for use of machinery, tools, or other items.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.27exposed
Monitor sales staff performance to ensure that goals are met.39.6%22.9%37.5%4.29exposed
Direct and supervise employees engaged in sales, inventory-taking, reconciling cash receipts, or performing specific services.39.6%22.9%37.5%3.95exposed
Hire, train, and evaluate personnel.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.86exposed
Examine products purchased for resale or received for storage to determine product condition.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.92untouched
Examine merchandise to ensure correct pricing and display, and that it functions as advertised.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.89untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability3.000-4
Embodiment0.420-3
Presence0.810-3
Accountability0.890-3
Context1.890-3
Verification cost1.220-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.