The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 17-2121.00 · Job Zone 4

AI exposure: Marine Engineers and Naval Architects

Design, develop, and evaluate the operation of marine vessels, ship machinery, and related equipment, such as power supply and propulsion systems.

Reading this score

computed

37.5% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Marine Engineers and Naval Architects at the 66th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.5 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 30 tasks it averages 1.95 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Schedule machine overhauls and the servicing of electrical, heating, ventilation,..., at 80.0%. The least is Maintain and coordinate repair of marine machinery and equipment for installation on vessels, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within architecture and engineering occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 56 roles in the group is 37.5%, and only 27 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 30 tasks, 16 are currently banded exposed, 7 assisted and 7 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take cheaper ways to verify output, since the cost of checking is currently doing more to hold this work in place than the cost of producing it. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

30 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Schedule machine overhauls and the servicing of electrical, heating, ventilation, refrigeration, water, and sewage systems.80.0%20.0%0.0%3.42exposed
Prepare technical reports for use by engineering, management, or sales personnel.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.72exposed
Maintain records of engineering department activities, including expense records and details of equipment maintenance and repairs.73.3%26.7%0.0%3.60exposed
Prepare plans, estimates, design and construction schedules, and contract specifications, including any special provisions.65.2%26.5%8.3%3.39exposed
Maintain contact with, and formulate reports for, contractors and clients to ensure completion of work at minimum cost.55.4%32.1%12.5%3.89exposed
Design layout of craft interior, including cargo space, passenger compartments, ladder wells, and elevators.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.71exposed
Prepare, or direct the preparation of, product or system layouts and detailed drawings and schematics.55.0%20.0%25.0%3.69exposed
Conduct analyses of ships, such as stability, structural, weight, and vibration analyses.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.94exposed
Evaluate performance of craft during dock and sea trials to determine design changes and conformance with national and international standards.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.61exposed
Evaluate operation of marine equipment during acceptance testing and shakedown cruises.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.53exposed
Procure materials needed to repair marine equipment and machinery.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.50exposed
Study design proposals and specifications to establish basic characteristics of craft, such as size, weight, speed, propulsion, displacement, and draft.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.93exposed
Conduct analytical, environmental, operational, or performance studies to develop designs for products, such as marine engines, equipment, and structures.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.50exposed
Analyze data to determine feasibility of product proposals.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.07exposed
Review work requests and compare them with previous work completed on ships to ensure that costs are economically sound.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.00exposed
Confer with research personnel to clarify or resolve problems and to develop or modify designs.37.5%37.5%25.0%3.00assisted
Determine conditions under which tests are to be conducted, as well as sequences and phases of test operations.35.0%40.0%25.0%3.06assisted
Act as liaisons between ships' captains and shore personnel to ensure that schedules and budgets are maintained, and that ships are operated safely and efficiently.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.60exposed
Establish arrangement of boiler room equipment and propulsion machinery, heating and ventilating systems, refrigeration equipment, piping, and other functional equipment.23.3%26.7%50.0%3.46assisted
Perform monitoring activities to ensure that ships comply with international regulations and standards for life-saving equipment and pollution preventatives.20.0%30.0%50.0%4.06assisted
Design complete hull and superstructure according to specifications and test data, in conformity with standards of safety, efficiency, and economy.20.0%30.0%50.0%4.00assisted
Coordinate activities with regulatory bodies to ensure repairs and alterations are at minimum cost and consistent with safety.20.0%30.0%50.0%3.81assisted
Investigate and observe tests on machinery and equipment for compliance with standards.20.0%30.0%50.0%3.44assisted
Design and oversee testing, installation, and repair of marine apparatus and equipment.15.7%25.9%58.3%3.33untouched
Inspect marine equipment and machinery to draw up work requests and job specifications.13.3%11.7%75.0%3.56untouched
Check, test, and maintain automatic controls and alarm systems.10.8%14.2%75.0%3.77untouched
Supervise other engineers and crew members and train them for routine and emergency duties.10.0%15.0%75.0%3.83untouched
Conduct environmental, operational, or performance tests on marine machinery and equipment.8.3%16.7%75.0%3.21untouched
Oversee construction and testing of prototype in model basin and develop sectional and waterline curves of hull to establish center of gravity, ideal hull form, and buoyancy and stability data.5.0%20.0%75.0%3.55untouched
Maintain and coordinate repair of marine machinery and equipment for installation on vessels.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.60untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability2.460-4
Embodiment1.070-3
Presence0.640-3
Accountability1.410-3
Context1.950-3
Verification cost1.640-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.