The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 29-1241.00 · Job Zone 5

AI exposure: Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric

Diagnose and perform surgery to treat and help prevent disorders and diseases of the eye. May also provide vision services for treatment including glasses and contacts.

Reading this score

computed

At 17.9% of weighted task load, Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric sits at the 30th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 54.4% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is verification cost. Across this occupation's 18 tasks it averages 2.83 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, checking the output costs more than producing it. Where an undetected error is expensive, dangerous or irreversible, the economics change. Someone has to verify the work, and verifying can cost as much as doing it. This is the friction most likely to fall as tools for checking improve.

The most exposed thing this job does is Document or evaluate patients' medical histories, at 53.3%. The least is Perform laser surgeries to alter, remove, reshape, or replace ocular tissue, at 0.0%. A gap of 53.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within healthcare practitioner and technical occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 18.5% across the group's 89 roles, with 48 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 18 tasks, 2 are currently banded exposed, 8 assisted and 8 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take a change in who is permitted to sign the work, which is a question for regulators rather than for engineers. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.780-4
Embodiment1.110-3
Presence1.810-3
Accountability2.720-3
Context2.000-3
Verification cost2.830-3

Task by task

18 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Document or evaluate patients' medical histories.53.3%46.7%0.0%4.60exposed
Educate patients about maintenance and promotion of healthy vision.40.0%35.0%25.0%4.60exposed
Provide ophthalmic consultation to other medical professionals.35.0%40.0%25.0%4.51assisted
Develop or implement plans and procedures for ophthalmologic services.30.0%45.0%25.0%4.72assisted
Develop treatment plans based on patients' histories and goals, the nature and severity of disorders, and treatment risks and benefits.30.0%45.0%25.0%4.71assisted
Perform, order, or interpret the results of diagnostic or clinical tests.29.2%33.3%37.5%4.58assisted
Conduct clinical or laboratory-based research in ophthalmology.20.0%30.0%50.0%2.63assisted
Refer patients for more specialized treatments when conditions exceed the experience, expertise, or scope of practice of practitioner.16.7%33.3%50.0%4.48assisted
Collaborate with multidisciplinary teams of health professionals to provide optimal patient care.13.3%36.7%50.0%4.34assisted
Diagnose or treat injuries, disorders, or diseases of the eye and eye structures including the cornea, sclera, conjunctiva, or eyelids.10.0%40.0%50.0%4.76assisted
Perform comprehensive examinations of the visual system to determine the nature or extent of ocular disorders.8.3%16.7%75.0%4.81untouched
Prescribe corrective lenses such as glasses or contact lenses.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.27untouched
Prescribe ophthalmologic treatments or therapies such as chemotherapy, cryotherapy, or low vision therapy.6.7%18.3%75.0%4.23untouched
Instruct interns, residents, or others in ophthalmologic procedures and techniques.5.0%20.0%75.0%3.42untouched
Provide or direct the provision of postoperative care.3.3%21.7%75.0%4.76untouched
Prescribe or administer topical or systemic medications to treat ophthalmic conditions and to manage pain.2.9%9.6%87.5%4.72untouched
Perform ophthalmic surgeries such as cataract, glaucoma, refractive, corneal, vitro-retinal, eye muscle, or oculoplastic surgeries.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.70untouched
Perform laser surgeries to alter, remove, reshape, or replace ocular tissue.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.46untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.