AI exposure: Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic
Lay out, machine, fit, and assemble castings and parts to metal or plastic foundry patterns, core boxes, or match plates.
Reading this score
computedAt 17.9% of weighted task load, Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic sits at the 30th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 74.1% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.
What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 15 tasks it averages 2.38 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.
The most exposed thing this job does is Design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or..., at 60.0%. The least is Apply plastic-impregnated fabrics or coats of sealing wax or lacquer to patterns used to..., at 0.0%. A gap of 60.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.
Within production occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 107 roles in the group is 16.1%, and only 43 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.
What would move this score. Of 15 tasks, 5 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 10 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.
Where the score comes from
judgedEvery task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.
| Dimension | Mean | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | 1.10 | 0-4 |
| Embodiment | 2.38 | 0-3 |
| Presence | 0.09 | 0-3 |
| Accountability | 0.33 | 0-3 |
| Context | 1.18 | 0-3 |
| Verification cost | 1.10 | 0-3 |
Task by task
15 tasks, O*NET 31.0| Task | Exposed | Assisted | Untouched | Importance | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or mockups. | 60.0% | 15.0% | 25.0% | 3.98 | exposed |
| Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software. | 60.0% | 15.0% | 25.0% | 3.89 | exposed |
| Select pattern materials such as wood, resin, and fiberglass. | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 3.56 | exposed |
| Read and interpret blueprints or drawings of parts to be cast or patterns to be made, compute dimensions, and plan operational sequences. | 45.9% | 20.7% | 33.3% | 4.60 | exposed |
| Program computerized numerical control machine tools. | 26.7% | 23.3% | 50.0% | 3.97 | exposed |
| Construct platforms, fixtures, and jigs for holding and placing patterns. | 16.7% | 8.3% | 75.0% | 3.75 | untouched |
| Set up and operate machine tools, such as milling machines, lathes, drill presses, and grinders, to machine castings or patterns. | 15.0% | 10.0% | 75.0% | 4.02 | untouched |
| Assemble pattern sections, using hand tools, bolts, screws, rivets, glue, or welding equipment. | 7.1% | 5.4% | 87.5% | 4.29 | untouched |
| Clean and finish patterns or templates, using emery cloths, files, scrapers, and power grinders. | 5.6% | 2.8% | 91.7% | 4.07 | untouched |
| Verify conformance of patterns or template dimensions to specifications, using measuring instruments such as calipers, scales, and micrometers. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.54 | untouched |
| Repair and rework templates and patterns. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.11 | untouched |
| Mark identification numbers or symbols onto patterns or templates. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.01 | untouched |
| Lay out and draw or scribe patterns onto material, using compasses, protractors, rulers, scribes, or other instruments. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.00 | untouched |
| Paint or lacquer patterns. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.32 | untouched |
| Apply plastic-impregnated fabrics or coats of sealing wax or lacquer to patterns used to produce plastic. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.18 | untouched |
Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.
Occupations either side of this one
The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.
Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.
What this means in practice
Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.