The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 29-1243.00 · Job Zone 5

AI exposure: Pediatric Surgeons

Diagnose and perform surgery to treat fetal abnormalities and birth defects, diseases, and injuries in fetuses, premature and newborn infants, children, and adolescents. Includes all pediatric surgical specialties and subspecialties.

Reading this score

computed

At 15.9% of weighted task load, Pediatric Surgeons sits at the 25th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 58.3% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is verification cost. Across this occupation's 18 tasks it averages 2.85 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, checking the output costs more than producing it. Where an undetected error is expensive, dangerous or irreversible, the economics change. Someone has to verify the work, and verifying can cost as much as doing it. This is the friction most likely to fall as tools for checking improve.

The most exposed thing this job does is Prepare case histories, at 53.3%. The least is Perform transplantation operations, at 0.0%. A gap of 53.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within healthcare practitioner and technical occupations, this one is less exposed than the median of 18.5% across the group's 89 roles, with 61 scoring higher. Being in an exposed family does not make a particular job exposed, and the reverse holds too.

What would move this score. Of 18 tasks, 3 are currently banded exposed, 6 assisted and 9 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take a change in who is permitted to sign the work, which is a question for regulators rather than for engineers. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.670-4
Embodiment1.190-3
Presence1.790-3
Accountability2.740-3
Context2.030-3
Verification cost2.850-3

Task by task

18 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Prepare case histories.53.3%46.7%0.0%exposed
Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment.46.7%28.3%25.0%exposed
Interpret results of preoperative tests and physical examinations.40.0%35.0%25.0%exposed
Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure.30.0%45.0%25.0%assisted
Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes.20.0%30.0%50.0%assisted
Consult with patient's other medical care specialists, such as cardiologist and endocrinologist, to determine if surgery is necessary.16.7%33.3%50.0%assisted
Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary.16.7%33.3%50.0%assisted
Monitor patient's recovery, making follow-up visits and using postoperative assessment techniques, such as blood and imaging tests.13.3%36.7%50.0%assisted
Examine fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents, and diagnose health issues to determine need for intervention, such as surgery.10.0%40.0%50.0%assisted
Provide consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons.10.0%27.5%62.5%untouched
Inform parents and guardians of child's health problems and surgical procedures through various channels, such as in-person and telecommunication systems.8.8%28.7%62.5%untouched
Describe preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures, such as sedatives, diets, antibiotics, or preparation and treatment of the patient's operative area, to parents or guardians of the patient.7.5%17.5%75.0%untouched
Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff.5.0%20.0%75.0%untouched
Follow established surgical techniques during the operation.5.0%20.0%75.0%untouched
Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk.3.3%21.7%75.0%untouched
Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched
Operate on fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patients' functions.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched
Perform transplantation operations, such as organ transplants, on fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents.0.0%0.0%100.0%untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean. 18 task(s) lacked a usable O*NET weight and are shown but excluded from the weighting.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.