The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 19-3094.00 · Job Zone 5

AI exposure: Political Scientists

Study the origin, development, and operation of political systems. May study topics, such as public opinion, political decisionmaking, and ideology. May analyze the structure and operation of governments, as well as various political entities. May conduct public opinion surveys, analyze election results, or analyze public documents.

Reading this score

computed

46.1% of this occupation's weighted task load is exposed, which puts Political Scientists at the 84th percentile of 923 occupations. The capability is largely there. Its average task scores 2.8 out of 4 on what a current system can produce, and the frictions that hold other jobs in place are comparatively weak here.

What holds the line here is context. Across this occupation's 14 tasks it averages 1.89 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work depends on knowledge the model cannot hold. Much of this job runs on things that were never written down: what this particular organisation does, what happened last week, what the person across the table actually meant. That context is the barrier, and it erodes as systems are given more access.

The most exposed thing this job does is Maintain current knowledge of government policy decisions, at 80.0%. The least is Serve on committees, at 0.0%. A gap of 80.0% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within life, physical and social science occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 60 roles in the group is 35.8%, and only 9 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 14 tasks, 12 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 2 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take cheaper ways to verify output, since the cost of checking is currently doing more to hold this work in place than the cost of producing it. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Task by task

14 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Maintain current knowledge of government policy decisions.80.0%20.0%0.0%4.46exposed
Disseminate research results through academic publications, written reports, or public presentations.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.35exposed
Collect, analyze, and interpret data, such as election results and public opinion surveys, reporting on findings, recommendations, and conclusions.66.7%33.3%0.0%4.04exposed
Interpret and analyze policies, public issues, legislation, or the operations of governments, businesses, and organizations.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.96exposed
Identify issues for research and analysis.50.0%25.0%25.0%3.92exposed
Provide media commentary or criticism related to public policy and political issues and events.50.0%25.0%25.0%2.65exposed
Forecast political, economic, and social trends.45.0%30.0%25.0%3.00exposed
Consult with and advise government officials, civic bodies, research agencies, the media, political parties, and others concerned with political issues.45.0%30.0%25.0%2.73exposed
Write drafts of legislative proposals, and prepare speeches, correspondence, and policy papers for governmental use.45.0%30.0%25.0%2.19exposed
Advise political science students.42.5%32.5%25.0%4.15exposed
Evaluate programs and policies, and make related recommendations to institutions and organizations.42.5%32.5%25.0%2.71exposed
Develop and test theories, using information from interviews, newspapers, periodicals, case law, historical papers, polls, or statistical sources.33.3%16.7%50.0%4.46exposed
Teach political science.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.58untouched
Serve on committees.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.15untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability2.790-4
Embodiment0.290-3
Presence0.820-3
Accountability0.860-3
Context1.890-3
Verification cost1.790-3

What this means in practice

Where most of a role's weighted task load is exposed, the work that survives is usually the part of the job nobody wrote into the job description: deciding what should be produced rather than producing it, and being answerable for the result. The tasks lowest on this page are a better guide to where to spend your time than any general advice about the future of work.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.