The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 53-3032.00 · Job Zone 2

AI exposure: Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.

Reading this score

computed

At 25.1% of weighted task load, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers sits at the 47th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 61.5% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 29 tasks it averages 2.17 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes, at 93.3%. The least is Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps, at 0.0%. A gap of 93.3% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within transportation and material moving occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 52 roles in the group is 24.2%, and only 22 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 29 tasks, 11 are currently banded exposed, 1 assisted and 17 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.430-4
Embodiment2.170-3
Presence0.660-3
Accountability0.930-3
Context1.160-3
Verification cost1.450-3

Task by task

29 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.93.3%6.7%0.0%4.40exposed
Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.57exposed
Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.61.3%26.2%12.5%4.48exposed
Inventory and inspect goods to be moved to determine quantities and conditions.55.0%20.0%25.0%4.28exposed
Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.63exposed
Read bills of lading to determine assignment details.50.0%25.0%25.0%4.56exposed
Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.42.5%32.5%25.0%4.13exposed
Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.37.5%37.5%25.0%4.55assisted
Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.36.7%13.3%50.0%4.60exposed
Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.31exposed
Follow special cargo-related procedures, such as checking refrigeration systems for frozen foods or providing food or water for livestock.30.0%20.0%50.0%4.10exposed
Give directions to laborers who are packing goods and moving them onto trailers.30.0%20.0%50.0%3.64exposed
Check conditions of trailers after contents have been unloaded to ensure that there has been no damage.13.3%11.7%75.0%4.37untouched
Crank trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.60untouched
Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.50untouched
Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.46untouched
Drive trucks to weigh stations before and after loading and along routes in compliance with state regulations.11.7%13.3%75.0%4.31untouched
Operate idle reduction systems or auxiliary power systems to generate power from alternative sources, such as fuel cells, to reduce idling time, to heat or cool truck cabins, or to provide power for other equipment.11.7%13.3%75.0%3.84untouched
Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.61untouched
Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.62untouched
Perform basic vehicle maintenance tasks, such as adding oil, fuel, or radiator fluid, performing minor repairs, or washing trucks.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.53untouched
Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.52untouched
Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.19untouched
Perform emergency roadside repairs, such as changing tires or installing light bulbs, tire chains, or spark plugs.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.95untouched
Remove debris from loaded trailers.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.76untouched
Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.66untouched
Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.66untouched
Install or remove special equipment, such as tire chains, grader blades, plow blades, or sanders.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.10untouched
Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.94untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.