The Task Exposure Indexv2026.Q3
Occupation · SOC 49-9041.00 · Job Zone 3

AI exposure: Industrial Machinery Mechanics

Repair, install, adjust, or maintain industrial production and processing machinery or refinery and pipeline distribution systems. May also install, dismantle, or move machinery and heavy equipment according to plans.

Reading this score

computed

At 25.9% of weighted task load, Industrial Machinery Mechanics sits at the 48th percentile, below the point where a job's centre of gravity has moved. 61.9% of what this role does is untouched, meaning current systems cannot produce that work at all, whatever the commercial incentive.

What holds the line here is embodiment. Across this occupation's 16 tasks it averages 1.91 out of 3, the highest of the five friction dimensions. In plain terms, the work has to happen in physical space. A language model cannot move matter. Until the robotics to do this work is both good enough and cheap enough to deploy widely, capability in software does not reach it.

The most exposed thing this job does is Enter codes and instructions to program computer-controlled machinery, at 86.7%. The least is Cut and weld metal to repair broken metal parts, fabricate new parts, or assemble new equipment, at 0.0%. A gap of 86.7% between two parts of the same job is the reason this index publishes at task level. An occupation-wide number would have hidden both.

Within installation, maintenance and repair occupations, this one is more exposed than most. The median across the 50 roles in the group is 12.8%, and only 4 of them score higher than this. Occupational families are not uniform, and the spread inside them is often wider than the gap between them.

What would move this score. Of 16 tasks, 7 are currently banded exposed, 0 assisted and 9 untouched. For that distribution to shift materially would take robotics cheap and reliable enough to deploy at scale, not a better language model. The score is re-computed every quarter against a fresh capability reference, and the change is published rather than quietly applied.

Where the score comes from

judged

Every task is scored through the standardised work activities it maps to. These are this occupation’s averages on the six rubric dimensions. Capability is what AI can do; the other five are what stands in the way.

DimensionMeanScale
Capability1.740-4
Embodiment1.910-3
Presence0.330-3
Accountability0.830-3
Context1.340-3
Verification cost1.220-3

Task by task

16 tasks, O*NET 31.0
TaskExposedAssistedUntouchedImportanceBand
Enter codes and instructions to program computer-controlled machinery.86.7%13.3%0.0%3.70exposed
Record parts or materials used and order or requisition new parts or materials, as necessary.76.7%23.3%0.0%4.02exposed
Record repairs and maintenance performed.73.3%26.7%0.0%4.05exposed
Assign schedules to work crews.70.0%30.0%0.0%3.06exposed
Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.66.7%33.3%0.0%3.81exposed
Study blueprints or manufacturers' manuals to determine correct installation or operation of machinery.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.80exposed
Demonstrate equipment functions and features to machine operators.26.7%23.3%50.0%3.66exposed
Observe and test the operation of machinery or equipment to diagnose malfunctions, using voltmeters or other testing devices.21.2%16.2%62.5%3.91untouched
Operate newly repaired machinery or equipment to verify the adequacy of repairs.15.0%10.0%75.0%4.05untouched
Examine parts for defects, such as breakage or excessive wear.10.0%15.0%75.0%4.10untouched
Clean, lubricate, or adjust parts, equipment, or machinery.5.2%3.1%91.7%4.17untouched
Repair or maintain the operating condition of industrial production or processing machinery or equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.29untouched
Repair or replace broken or malfunctioning components of machinery or equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.24untouched
Disassemble machinery or equipment to remove parts and make repairs.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.14untouched
Reassemble equipment after completion of inspections, testing, or repairs.0.0%0.0%100.0%4.11untouched
Cut and weld metal to repair broken metal parts, fabricate new parts, or assemble new equipment.0.0%0.0%100.0%3.78untouched

Task text and importance ratings sourced from O*NET 31.0. Shares computed. The occupation score is the importance-weighted mean.

Occupations either side of this one

The four closest scores in the same occupational family, then the four closest anywhere in the index.

Read this carefully. Exposure is not displacement. A high score means current AI systems can produce this work, not that anyone will stop paying a person to do it. Adoption depends on economics, regulation and inertia that this index deliberately does not model. How the score is built.

What this means in practice

Most of this work is not reachable by current systems, so the immediate pressure is on the administrative edges of the role rather than its core: the scheduling, the reporting, the written records. That is where time is recovered.